Mideast Gulf War: Rocky Road Ahead to Reach Durable Peace Deal

Source Summary

The US-Iran interim agreement is a major milestone but work on a durable deal – or at least an extension – has just begun. While initial talks provide clarity on how negotiations will occur, major hurdles remain. Key flash points – like the Israel-Lebanon conflict and the Strait of Hormuz – could still upend the deal. Yet, political and economic considerations mean both sides will be reticent to resume wide-scale hostilities. We have updated our scenarios, with a Shaky Interim Agreement – where the interim agreement holds but a more durable deal is not reached – as our new base case. However, our Viable Peace Pathway and Hostilities Resume scenarios remain major possibilities.